The overall direction of developed stock markets is a relentless and continual rise in value over the very long term, punctuated by falls. It’s important not to let global uncertainties affect your financial planning for the years ahead. Individuals who stop their investment planning, particularly during market downturns, can often miss out on opportunities to invest at lower prices.
Such volatility is less frightening if you take a longer-term view. It’s important to stick to your strategy and keep moving ahead consistently by spreading risk and growing your wealth. But it’s volatility in stock markets that make investors nervous. However, on the flip side, not all volatility is bad, for without volatility stock prices would never rise.
Focus on long-term horizons
Trying to second-guess the impact of events such as Brexit or a stock market correction rarely pays off. Instead, investors who focus on long-term horizons – at least five to ten years – have historically fared much better.
At the time of writing this guide, the UK Government is still in negotiations with the European Union over the terms of its planned withdrawal. As we’ve been constantly hearing over the past few years in the media, Brexit uncertainty is affecting business and consumer confidence, whilst also contributing to a difficult political backdrop. But right now, the form of what this might look like is unclear, as are the related economic and regulatory implications for investments.
The Bank of England suggested that a worst-case scenario is indeed a no-deal Brexit, which could lead to a shrinking economy, property prices falling by over a third, unemployment doubling and inflation rising substantially. But that is the worst-case scenario, and there is some comfort in knowing that the actual outcome is likely to be better.
But there could be a scenario where there is no direct impact. For example, for a UK-domiciled individual investing with a UK-registered company from a UK-based bank account, it’s unlikely that Brexit would have a direct impact on their investments.
Foreign currency exposure
Political uncertainty and various other factors such as exchange and interest rates can all impact how investments perform. However, for some investors, the Brexit vote has up until now been good for their portfolio’s performance, as some have benefited from foreign currency exposure.
During any period of change, it’s important to be able to access professional financial advice and feel comfortable that your investments are robust enough to deal with any potential volatility and that they include a diverse mix of assets, which is key.
Economic cycle performance
Among so much uncertainty and gloom surrounding the UK’s departure from the EU, conventional pricing of company shares has been turned on its head. This is not to say that all UK stocks have fared badly. To the contrary, many large companies that derive most of their earnings from overseas have outperformed, as have those seen as defensive stocks that are widely expected to hold up well throughout the economic cycle.
It is often said that quality is not about any single metric, but a blend of characteristics that allow companies to deliver growing value for shareholders over time. A quality company should, among other things, be able to deliver sustainable growth with a healthy balance sheet and strong corporate governance.
Fertile hunting grounds
Brexit, for all its unintended consequences, has opened up rare possibilities to buy stakes in quality companies at attractive valuations. By comparing share prices to company earnings, UK stocks overall have looked less expensive than their counterparts elsewhere in the world – especially in the US. The abandonment of logic in the face of short-term concerns over the UK economy has created particularly fertile hunting grounds for some long-term investors.
It also remains too early to fully understand how Brexit may affect the cost of imported goods years from now, as so much depends on trade agreements reached between UK and the EU, and other countries. If the pound’s weakness persisted, the cost of other imported goods would also rise.
But despite periodic and unavoidable corrections, stock markets tend to recover over time. The worst thing to do is sell out of the market. Long-term investors need to take a pragmatic view about volatility and the subsequent opportunities. Of course, it is tempting to think that cash is the best place for long-term savings, but if investors embrace opportunities and avoid panicking, then market corrections can become a friend.
It’s important to remember, especially as Brexit approaches, that no matter how big a market correction, gains made during the recovery period that follows generally outweigh any losses. No one can predict exactly what will happen in 2019 and beyond, but we can safely look to history and take some comfort from the knowledge that the markets are resilient. Short-term bear markets may be painful, but bull markets are very rewarding for those who hold their nerve.
Protecting your investment portfolio
- Media frenzy – Volatility, risk and market declines are a normal part of the investing cycle, but the media likes drama. Reports will use words that make these market fluctuations sound alarming, so be cautious about reacting to the unnerving 24/7 news cycle.
- Stay strategic – If you have a well diversified portfolio, then it’s more important than ever to stay the course. You have a strategy in place that reflects your risk tolerance and time horizon, so stay committed. However, if you reacted and sold in a previous market decline or have not implemented a strategic asset allocation, then now is the time to have a discussion about your investment options.
- Stay calm – The first thing to do when volatility is high is to stay calm. It can be easy to work yourself up into a panic when stocks are falling, but this won’t help you. Making calm, rational decisions is of course one of the keys to long-term investing success. Remember; you haven’t actually lost any money until you sell. The chances are that stocks will recover, as they have historically done in the past.
- Stay focused – No one knows how severe any market turbulence will be or what the market will do next. It could be over quickly or linger for a while. But no matter what lies ahead, proper diversification and perseverance over the long term are what’s most important.
Talking strategic approach
Sensible diversification – owning a mix of assets, including shares, bonds and alternative investments such as property – can help protect against uncertainties over the long term. When one area of a portfolio under-performs, another part should provide important protection – and it’s never too early or too late to start taking this considered and strategic approach. For further information contact one of our independent financial advisers here.